View uncertainty details

UncertaintyHow might the projected changes in society’s use of land and other resources, as well as protection and restoration efforts under different future scenarios, affect environmental quality, habitats, and fish and wildlife populations? What changes in human population levels and their distribution, per capita income, and economic activity are expected over the next 20 years?
ThemeHuman development
SubthemeImpacts
Sources NPCC 2006-3: Research Plan 2006
Criticality Level Priority
Rationale There is uncertainty about changes in the human system and in society's support for restoration efforts, including how changing preferences will affect collective actions. The human and natural systems of the Pacific Northwest are not static, and changes such as population growth, land development, and technological innovation will influence the effectiveness of restoration efforts. Most models of projected salmon and steelhead populations in the Basin do not incorporate future change in the human system. Fortunately, growth in population and associated changes in land use can be predicted, indicating areas where landscape and riverscape changes are most likely to occur (e.g., due to urban expansion). Other changes that will impact environmental quality, water scarcity, and resource depletion may be more uncertain. Effects of future changes in human systems on natural resources can be projected and evaluated with a range of model types representing coupled human-natural systems. This critical uncertainty combines two critical uncertainties from the 2006 Research Plan; see Part 2, ISAB/ISRP 2016-1, Critical Uncertainties (CUs) #39 and 40, for the ISAB/ISRP discussion of progress made toward addressing this uncertainty.


Projects that address this uncertainty:

(click to view projects at cbfish.org)

ID Title Sponsor Locations Purpose Emphasis Addresses
198802200 Umatilla Fish Passage Operations Umatilla Confederated Tribes (CTUIR) Columbia Plateau/Umatilla Habitat Restoration/Protection Indirectly
199206103 Albeni Falls Wildlife Mitigation-Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG) Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG) Intermountain/Pend Oreille Habitat Restoration/Protection Indirectly
200000900 Logan Valley Wildlife Mitigation Burns-Paiute Tribe Middle Snake/Malheur Habitat Restoration/Protection Indirectly
200002700 Malheur River Wildlife Mitigation Burns-Paiute Tribe Middle Snake/Malheur Habitat Restoration/Protection Indirectly
200203700 Freshwater Mussel Research and Restoration Umatilla Confederated Tribes (CTUIR) Columbia Plateau/Umatilla Habitat RM and E Indirectly
200300700 Lower Columbia River Estuary Ecosystem Monitoring Lower Columbia Estuary Partnership Columbia River Estuary/Columbia Estuary, Lower Columbia/Columbia Lower Habitat RM and E Indirectly
200301100 Columbia River Estuary Habitat Restoration Lower Columbia Estuary Partnership Columbia River Estuary/Columbia Estuary, Lower Columbia/Columbia Lower Habitat Restoration/Protection Indirectly
200301700 Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program (ISEMP) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Programmatic RM and E Indirectly
200900800 Climate Change Impacts Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC) Programmatic RM and E Indirectly
201000400 CREST Estuary Habitat Restoration Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce (CREST) Columbia River Estuary/Columbia Estuary Habitat Restoration/Protection Indirectly
201007000 WA Estuary MOA Project Scoping & Implementation Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) Columbia River Estuary/Columbia Estuary Habitat Restoration/Protection Indirectly
201100600 Columbia Habitat and Monitoring Program - Pilot (CHaMP-P) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Habitat Data Management Indirectly

last updated: Jan 26, 2016